Intermediate Financial Management

BA – 316 Project Part 1 Identify a company Look at financial statements (from previous years, at least one year) Conduct ratio analysis. Use Dupont equation from results.. Make a financial statement Organize and Analyze Statements Make recommendations – how will you improve the forecast Strengths, weaknesses, etc. Part 2 Forecasting – Statistical Analysis Standard Goal of 10% Determine location of new funds (borrowing, issuance of stocks, capital) ? page to 1 page proposal before starting project Chapter 2 Homework – (5 , 9) & Mini Case (a – i), (#12 for 08/31) *Mini Case (j – m) for 09/12 Correlation Coefficient -> Degree of variability Possibilities of economy on investments ProbabilityRate of Return A Pessimistic. 2513% Likely. 5015% Optimistic. 2517% Realized Rate of Return & Correlation Coefficient ***Calculate Correlation of Coefficient for these stocks Stocks X, Y, and Z Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Avg? X8%10%12%14%16%12%3. 16 Y16%14 %12%10%8%12%3. 16 Z8%10%12%14%16%12%3. 16 Correlation – A statistical measure of the relationship between the rates of return of two assets Correlation Coefficient – A statistical measure of the degree of the relationship between the rates of return of two assets. Positively Correlated – Describes two rates of return that move in the same direction Negatively Correlated- Describes two rates of return that move in opposite directions ?= t=1n(ri,t-ri,avg)(rj,t – rj,avg)t=1nri,t-ri,avg2t=1nrj,t – rj,avg2 Yearr  ? xryrz 18%16%8%Rxy= 2101410 3121212Rxz= 4141014 516816 Diversifiable Risk Company-specific risk Unsystematic risk S&P, NASDAQ, Dow Jones Non-Diversifiable Risk Market Risk Systematic Risk The risk of a portfolio depends on the correlation coefficient of returns on the assets within the portfolio. 1. If rate of return of two assets are perfectly positively correlated, R = 1 2. If rate of return of two assets are perfectly negatively correlated, R = -1 3. If rate of return of two assets are independent, -1 < R < 1 Beta Coefficient – b Measure of the risk that one asset can contribute to a portfolio ry = a + b(rM) When beta is positive, it means that the stock moves with the market And vice-versa if beta is negative Beta measures the non-diversifiable risk of an asset. Find Correlation Coefficient (as a portfolio) Calculate beta – Use S&P What should be the risk of the portfolio? **Pick a pair Exxon & BP Walmart & Kroger Verizon & AT&T Toyota & Ford CAPM – Capital Asset Pricing Model A model that describes the relationship between the required rate of return and the non-diversifiable risk of a portfolio rMrxryrz 55102. 5 1010205 1515307. 5 20204010 25255012. 5 30306015 r17. 517. 5358. 75 b1120. 50 ?111 bx= ? rx? rm? xm = ? x? m? xm SML Equation – ri = rrf + (rm – rrf)bi IF rm = 9% RRF = 3% bA = 0. 5 bB= 1 bC= 2 Slope of SML line provides the riskiness of the market, aka market risk premium. Chapter 3 – page 76 Optimal Portfolio Homework (#7) Covariance COVAB = i=1nrAi- rArBi- rBPi ProbabilityAsset AAsset BAsset CAsset DAsset E .158%4%12%2%4% .20861046 .3088878 .2081061210 .1581241612 r ? 88888 ?02. 522. 524. 662. 52 COV COVxy= ? x ? y(? xy) Solve COVBD, COVBE, COVCD Calculate risk without beta ?p= wx2? x2+(1-w)y2? y2+2w(1-w)? xy? x? y Two key factors for investing How much is the rate of return What is the risk involved If COV is large & positive Portfolio standard deviation will be between the two stand-alone deviations If COV is large & negative Portfolio standard deviation will be minimized (lower than the lowest one) Analyzing portfolio options Asset AAsset B r ? 5%8% ?410 wawbr ? p 100%05. 0 75%25%5. 75 50%50%6. 5 25%75%7. 25 0100%8. 0 ?p ?ab = 1? ab = 0? ab = -1 Linear relationship between increases in portion changes of asset A vs. asset B Percentage change in risk also remains constant if perfectly positively or perfectly negatively correlated Look into financial statements for project, bring to class 09-28 r ? A = 5% ?A = 4% r ? B = 8% ?B = 10% wAwbr ab = 1? ab = 0 ? ab = -1 100%0%5%444 75255. 755. 53. 90. 5 50506. 57. 05. 43. 0 25757. 258. 57. 66. 5 01008. 010. 010. 010. 0 Plot rate of return on y-axis and risk on x-axis The feasible set will be determined Most Efficient portfolio Provides maximum expected rate of return with the least risk. The capital market line Shows the possibility that investors could have an efficient portfolio outside of the feasible set Short-term borrowing and short-term lending